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Generation
The generation model forecasts
the number of tons, by commodity group, produced and consumed
for each coarse-level zone. The productions are segmented
into internal productions, which are to be transported to
an internal zone, and exports, which are sent to external
zones. Similarly, the consumptions are classified as internal
or as imports.
Productions and consumptions are estimated using multivariate
linear regression models estimated using local data.
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Direct trips
Direct trips are routed in two ways. In the graphic, the
default method is shown which has a truck going from A
to B and back to C, running empty in one of the directions.
Alternatively, the Direct Trip model can be adjusted to
accept certain distances to look
for return loads. |
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Touring trips
The touring model is used to model short-haul vehicle
trips whose
structure
is more complex than A-B-A. It is used separately for
heavy and light
trucks. |
Distribution
The distribution models allocate
the forecasted productions by commodity group from their zone
of origin to their zone of consumption. The productions and
consumptions are split into short and long-haul trips. Both
trip types are distributed using gravity models using different
generalized cost functions. Short trips are distributed
using distance; long-haul trips are distributed using
a composite cost of travel time, distance, and cost.
These elements are weighted using parameters from the modal
choice models.
Modal choice
The modal choice models are
applied on the long-haul trip matrices only using multinomial
logit choice functions. Short-haul trips are assumed
to travel by road. Long-haul trips are split into truck,
rail, inland waterway and modal combinations (combined transport).
Generalized cost functions are defined using local data for
each combination of commodity group and mode and distance
class. The modal choice functions incorporate time, distance
and cost.
Transport Logistics
Node model
Transport logistics nodes
(TLN) are places such as major goods yards, multi-modal terminals,
railway stations, and ports, where trip chaining occurs.
The Transport Logistics Node model examines the matrices created
by the long-haul modal choice model and partitions them into
direct transport and transport chain matrices.
The goods in the direct transport matrices will be transported
directly from their initial origin to their final destination.
The goods in the transport chain matrices are divided into
two segments: from origin to the TLN and from the TLN to the
destination. Of these two sections, one will be classified
as long-haul and the other will be classified as short-haul. At
this stage of the model, Cube Cargo has estimated the commodity
flow matrices by product type and mode.
Fine distribution model
For each combination of mode
and commodity group the matrices are converted using gravity
formulations to the fine level zone system.
This transition is made in order to produce truck vehicle
matrices at a zone level sufficiently fine to provide estimations
of link-level truck flows.
Vehicle model
The vehicle model estimates
the number of vehicle trips per day given the mode and commodity
group matrices from the previous model steps.
The model iterates over all origins across all of the various
matrices, by commodity class, and applies two models which
separately model direct trips and touring vehicle trips.
The results are combined to provide matrices of vehicle truck
volumes by truck type for assignment.
Service traffic model
In urban areas there is a
significant amount of local delivery and non-goods related
truck traffic.
This includes transport of relatively small amounts of goods
and the transport of services.
The service traffic model generates local truck matrices for
these purposes using linear regression generation models and
gravity models for distribution. more
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